基于最小二乘法的熱試驗(yàn)溫度數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)

Prediction oftemperature in thermal test based on least square method

摘要: 航天器真空熱試驗(yàn)中，溫度數(shù)據(jù)的正確判讀及預(yù)測(cè)十分困難，又十分重要。文章針對(duì)典型的太陽(yáng)電池板試件建立了熱模型，使用熱分析中常見的有限差分法建立離散方程，通過最小二乘法擬合其系數(shù)，以預(yù)測(cè)下一個(gè)測(cè)控周期各個(gè)測(cè)量點(diǎn)的溫度，并提出了滑動(dòng)窗口修正的方法。基于某型號(hào)電池板試驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)熱模型的預(yù)測(cè)精度進(jìn)行了驗(yàn)證和誤差分析，最后對(duì)通過測(cè)點(diǎn)溫度逆向預(yù)測(cè)加熱功率的應(yīng)用進(jìn)行了討論。

Abstract: The data validation and prediction are difficult yet important issues in the thermal vacuum test. In this paper, a typical solar panel thermal model is build, and the discrete equation is derived by the finite difference method. The coefficients are fitted by the least square method with “slip window” correction, to predict the temperatures of measuring points in the next measurement and control period. Correction slip window. Based on the test data of a certain solar panel, the prediction capability of this model and the related error analysis are made. In the end, the method to predict the heating power through the temperature of measurement points is discussed.