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衛(wèi)星太陽(yáng)電池陣在軌故障統(tǒng)計(jì)及分析

Statistical data and reliability analysis of on-orbit anomalies and failures of satellite solar array

  • 摘要: 文章針對(duì)2000年1月至2012年9月期間79顆在軌衛(wèi)星發(fā)生的114次太陽(yáng)電池陣故障事件進(jìn)行了分類統(tǒng)計(jì)分析，并利用Kaplan-Meier估計(jì)量分析方法對(duì)這些在軌故障進(jìn)行了可靠性分析。結(jié)果表明：太陽(yáng)電池陣的故障多發(fā)生在衛(wèi)星在軌第一年，其中電子類故障發(fā)生率較高；不同衛(wèi)星平臺(tái)的系統(tǒng)缺陷或設(shè)計(jì)共性問(wèn)題也與太陽(yáng)電池陣故障緊密相關(guān)。最后，結(jié)合我國(guó)衛(wèi)星太陽(yáng)電池陣設(shè)計(jì)及制造工藝技術(shù)，提出了加強(qiáng)出廠前的測(cè)試和試驗(yàn)驗(yàn)證、加強(qiáng)仿真建模、加強(qiáng)冗余設(shè)計(jì)等建議。

     

    Abstract: For the analysis of on-orbit anomalies and failures of the satellite solar arrays and their reliabilities, 114 sets of satellite in-orbit solar array anomalies and failures between January 2000 and September 2012 are studied, and of particular interest is the Kaplan-Meier estimator of on-orbit solar array failures of GEO satellites. The following results are obtained: the most frequently happened failures are the SAO failures; the number of GEO satellite failures are the largest; the first year in the orbit is the failure season; the electrical failures are the commonest; the system fault or the common problems of certain satellite buses could be involved. Some suggestions are made to improve the simulation model, the validation test before delivery or the redundancy design, which may help to improve the reliability of satellite solar arrays.

     

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