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地球低緯區(qū)邊緣大氣密度的預(yù)測(cè)

Prediction of atmospheric density at earth edge in low-latitude regions

  • 摘要: 基于NRLMSISE-00大氣模型討論日地空間環(huán)境對(duì)地球低緯度地區(qū)邊緣大氣密度的影響,提出預(yù)測(cè)地球低緯地區(qū)邊緣大氣日平均密度的簡(jiǎn)化模型法和經(jīng)驗(yàn)法。簡(jiǎn)化模型法利用地磁活動(dòng)和太陽(yáng)活動(dòng)的11年準(zhǔn)周期特性,通過(guò)預(yù)測(cè)地磁活動(dòng)和太陽(yáng)活動(dòng)的變化規(guī)律以預(yù)測(cè)地球邊緣大氣密度。經(jīng)驗(yàn)法則直接利用第23個(gè)太陽(yáng)活動(dòng)周期的日平均密度變化曲線經(jīng)過(guò)傅里葉變換處理得到日平均密度變化規(guī)律曲線,然后將曲線擬合得到不同高度下的密度晝夜波動(dòng)規(guī)律,再利用預(yù)測(cè)得到的日平均密度即可計(jì)算出具體當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間對(duì)應(yīng)的密度情況。誤差分析說(shuō)明經(jīng)驗(yàn)預(yù)測(cè)法比簡(jiǎn)化模型法精度更高。兩種方法均具有較高的精度并且使用方便,可用于地球邊緣大氣密度的工程化預(yù)測(cè)計(jì)算。

     

    Abstract: The influence of the space environment on the atmospheric density at earth edge in low-latitude regions is discussed based on the NRLMSISE-00 model. Two methods are proposed to predict the daily average atmospheric density, the simplified model method and the empirical method. The simplified method predicts the values of Ap and F10.7 for the atmospheric density at earth edge in the low-latitude regions in the 11-year period of geomagnetic activity and solar activity. The empirical method directly predicts the value of the future atmospheric density by using the daily average density in the 23rd solar cycle and by means of the Fourier transformation. The diurnal fluctuations in different altitudes can be derived by using the method of fitting curve. Thus the atmospheric density at a local time can be calculated by using the predicted average density. The error analysis for the two methods shows that the empirical method is more accurate than the simplified method. Both methods have high accuracy and are easy to use as engineering prediction algorithms for the atmospheric density at the edge of the earth.

     

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